沪铜市场周报：供应收敛内需稳增，沪铜或将有所支撑-20250411

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may be supported by a slight convergence in supply and stable growth in demand, with continuous inventory depletion and positive domestic consumption expectations [4] - It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Performance: The Shanghai copper main contract opened lower and rebounded on the weekly line, with a weekly decline of 4.6% and an amplitude of 5.53%. The closing price of the main contract was 75,230 yuan/ton [4] - International Situation: The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in March was 2.4%, hitting a six - month low and lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. The market has almost fully priced in a Fed rate cut in June [4] - Domestic Situation: In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. Core CPI rose significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [4] - Fundamentals: The copper concentrate processing fee index hit new lows, and the domestic north - south crude copper processing fees also weakened slightly. The problem of tight supply of refined copper raw materials will continue [4] - Supply: Due to the tight supply of copper concentrates and trade disputes blocking the channel for importing scrap copper from the US, domestic smelters may experience a decline in production. In April, three smelters have maintenance plans [4] - Demand: After the sharp decline in copper prices, the upstream showed some reluctance to sell and raised the spot price, while the downstream's willingness to buy at low prices increased. Copper product processing orders increased [4] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Futures Contract: As of April 11, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 970 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 75,230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,630 yuan/ton, and the position was 139,941 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 47,223 lots [10] - Spot Price: As of April 11, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 74,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,005 yuan/ton [13] - Inter - month Spread: As of April 11, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton [13] - Premium and Position: As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 103 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 3,897 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,253 lots [22] 3.3 Option Market - As of April 11, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.845, a week - on - week increase of 0.0202 [27] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Copper Ore and Processing Fees: As of the latest data, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 65,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,700 yuan/ton. The southern and northern crude copper processing fees weakened [28] - Imports and Price Difference: As of February 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.1825 million tons, a decrease of 0.3488 million tons from January, a decline of 13.78%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 918.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 439.87 yuan/ton [33] - Global Production and Inventory: As of January 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.905 million tons, a decrease of 0.182 million tons from December, a decline of 8.72%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77%, a decrease of 7.8% from December. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 549,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58,000 tons [38] 3.5 Industry Situation - Supply - side Production: As of December 2024, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.242 million tons, an increase of 0.109 million tons from November, an increase of 9.62%. As of January 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.382 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from December, an increase of 0.42%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81.3%, a decrease of 1.1% from December [43] - Imports and Profits: As of February 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 305,133.08 tons, an increase of 8,009.22 tons from January, an increase of 2.7%. The import profit and loss amount was 1,124.52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,340.94 yuan/ton [48][49] - Inventory: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory decreased by 1,375 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 12,472 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 42,795 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 418,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons [52][53] 3.6 Downstream and Application - Copper Product Production and Imports: As of December 2024, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2728 million tons, an increase of 0.1323 million tons from November, an increase of 6.18%. As of February 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 420,000 tons, the same as in January [60] - Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production: As of February 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.2% and 33.5% respectively. As of December 2024, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 27.9%, 12.9%, 10.3%, 4.9%, and 13.4% respectively [66] - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit Production: As of February 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 1.07197377 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 76.72 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% and a month - on - month increase of 83% [72] 3.7 Overall Situation - As of January 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a supply gap, with a monthly value of - 19,000 tons. As of December 2024, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 106,900 tons [77]