基础化工行业双周报（2025、3、28-2025、4、10）：关注具有国产替代逻辑、供需格局良好的细分领域-20250411

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on segments with domestic substitution logic and favorable supply-demand dynamics [1][34] - The recent trend of de-globalization has increased uncertainty in downstream demand for the basic chemical industry [34] Market Review - As of April 10, 2025, the CITIC basic chemical industry has seen a decline of 9.62% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.6 percentage points, ranking 26th among 30 sectors [12] - Year-to-date, the industry has decreased by 3.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.95 percentage points, ranking 16th [12] - The top five performing sub-sectors in the last two weeks include food and feed additives (-2.1%), daily chemicals (-2.2%), potassium fertilizer (-2.23%), civil explosives (-3.9%), and compound fertilizers (-5.16%) [16] - The bottom five performing sub-sectors include polyester (-16.74%), carbon fiber (-15.67%), other chemical raw materials (-14.75%), rubber additives (-14.26%), and lithium battery chemicals (-13.54%) [18] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five chemical products with price increases in the last week include bromine (+13.82%), PVDF powder (+10.53%), dichloropropane-white material (+6.94%), ammonium sulfate (+5.63%), and dipentene (+2.44%) [21] - The top five products with price declines include liquid chlorine (-16.33%), butadiene (-14.73%), PX (-13.54%), crude benzene (-12.45%), and styrene-butadiene rubber (-11.93%) [25] Sector Insights - In the refrigerant sector, the long-term contract prices for refrigerants are expected to continue rising, with R32 at 46,600 yuan/ton (up 14.77% from Q1) and R410A at 47,600 yuan/ton (up 14.42% from Q1) [34] - In the sucralose sector, the report highlights that the demand is primarily in essential consumer goods, with low sensitivity to price increases [34] - The lubricating oil additives market is dominated by four major companies, and domestic high-end products rely on imports, with potential for domestic substitution due to geopolitical tensions [34]