煤炭行业双周报（2025、3、28-2025、4、10）：港口库存开始下行，静待旺季来临需求改善-20250411

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the coal industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [46]. Core Insights - The coal industry has experienced a decline of 4.83% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.19 percentage points, ranking 13th among 31 industries. Year-to-date, the coal industry has dropped 13.01%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.93 percentage points, ranking 31st [9][10]. - The report highlights that port inventories are beginning to decline, with a total of 29.935 million tons at the Bohai Rim ports as of April 10, down 2.41% from two weeks prior. However, the overall demand remains weak, leading to insufficient support for coal prices [42][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of April 10, 2025, the coal industry has seen a 4.83% decline in the last two weeks, with the thermal coal sector down 3.05%, coking coal down 7.62%, and coke down 11.05% [9][15]. - The report notes that the average daily pig iron output from surveyed steel mills increased by 1.49 million tons, indicating a slight uptick in demand despite the overall weak market conditions [43]. Industry Dynamics - The report cites that the China Coal Industry Association projects a 1.2% year-on-year increase in national raw coal production to 4.78 billion tons in 2024, with coal imports expected to rise by 14.4% to 54.3 million tons [37][43]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural reforms in the coal industry, with a focus on intelligent mining and increased mechanization, achieving a mechanization rate of 99.32% [43]. Company Announcements - The report mentions that China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy are recommended for their strong cash flow and stable performance [43][44]. - Recent operational data from Shaanxi Coal indicates a 0.15% year-on-year increase in commodity coal production for March 2025, totaling 15.27 million tons [43]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests monitoring macroeconomic policies and temperature changes, as these factors could influence coal demand and pricing in the coming weeks [42]. - The report also highlights the potential for coking coal prices to stabilize as temperatures rise and steel mill operations improve [43].