沥青策略：沥青空单逐步止盈离场

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt short positions should be gradually closed out as the crude oil rebounds from the low level with large fluctuations and the strengthening of the asphalt crack spread is hindered. Also, the global trade war cloud still lingers despite the short - term rebound of assets [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.9 percentage points to 27.6% this week, still close to the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in April is 228.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The downstream construction rate continued to rebound but remained low. The national shipment volume decreased by 22.58% to 188,900 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased but was still at the lowest level in recent years. Due to factors such as the possible relaxation of US sanctions and the trade war, the crude oil price pressured the asphalt price. With the short - term rebound of assets, it is recommended to gradually close out asphalt short positions [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures 2506 contract rose 1.31% to 3,315 yuan/ton, with the lowest price at 3,255 yuan/ton and the highest at 3,316 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 14,565 to 163,057 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region rose to 3,490 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract fell to 158 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.9 percentage points to 27.6%. The highway construction investment from January to February had a negative year - on - year growth, and the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased. The infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased. The downstream construction rate continued to rebound but was still low. The government proposed a more proactive fiscal policy with increased deficit and bond issuance [4]. Inventory - As of the week of April 11, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 1.1 percentage points to 20% compared with the week of April 4, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].