齐翔腾达（002408）：业绩有所改善，原料价格回落下景气度有望改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.219 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.31%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 32 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 108.26%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 13 million yuan, also up by 104.95% [2][6] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.866 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 2.72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.09%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -165 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][6] - The company is a leader in the C4 industrial chain, focusing on deep processing of raw material carbon four, with significant market share in products like methyl ethyl ketone and butadiene [12] - The company is expanding into the C3 industrial chain with projects in propane dehydrogenation and epoxy propane, although the supply-demand balance in the epoxy propane market is under pressure [12] - Raw material prices are expected to decline, alleviating cost pressures for the company, which may lead to improved operational performance [12] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 320 million yuan, 760 million yuan, and 1.212 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 39.0, 16.5, and 10.3 [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue was 25.219 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 1.434 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 6% [18] - The company expects revenues to increase to 26.640 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected to reach 321 million yuan [18] Industry Position - The company holds a dominant position in the domestic market for methyl ethyl ketone, with a market share of approximately 70% [12] - The domestic butadiene industry is experiencing a capacity growth period, with the company utilizing advanced production methods to maintain competitiveness [12] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a reduction in raw material costs, which will improve profit margins and operational efficiency [12] - The strategic expansion into the C3 industrial chain is aimed at enhancing the company's market position and addressing supply-demand imbalances [12]