轻工制造行业月报：出口增速下滑，关注关税政策影响-20250411

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In Line with the Market" for the light industry manufacturing sector [6]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 1.34% in March 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.27 percentage points, ranking 21st among 30 sectors [12][14]. - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio as of March 31, 2025, is 30.70, which is at the 40th percentile historically, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [20][21]. - The report highlights the impact of various factors on the paper and home furnishing segments, including fluctuating raw material prices and the influence of government policies on market demand [6][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The light industry manufacturing index underperformed the broader market in March 2025, with a trading volume of 366.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.63% decrease month-on-month [12][13]. - Sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with "Other Home Furnishings" and "Metal Packaging" gaining 2.39% and 1.79% respectively, while "Furniture" and "Other Light Industry" fell by 4.25% and 7.46% respectively [14][17]. - Nearly half of the stocks in the sector saw gains, with 70 out of 171 stocks rising, while the median decline was -1.74% [17][18]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Paper Industry - The paper and paper products industry reported a cumulative revenue of 209.05 billion yuan in January-February 2025, down 1.9% year-on-year, with total profits declining by 17.7% [24]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper was 1,415 yuan/ton as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a 0.86% increase from the previous month [29]. - The production of corrugated paper and boxboard continued to face downward price pressure, with average prices dropping by 3.51% and 6.54% respectively [35][36]. 2.2. Home Furnishing - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with cumulative sales area for new residential buildings declining by only 3.4% year-on-year in January-February 2025, a significant improvement from previous months [74]. - The furniture manufacturing sector faced challenges, with cumulative revenue of 91.22 billion yuan in January-February 2025, down 2.7% year-on-year, and profits down by 29.7% [83]. - The furniture retail sector saw a growth in sales, with a 15.63% increase in sales for building materials and home furnishings in February 2025 [88][89].