棕榈油日报-20250411

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 10, affected by the US suspending the additional tariffs on some countries for 90 days, crude oil and other oils rose sharply. The BMD Malaysian palm oil rose from a low level, and the domestic palm oil futures and spot prices also increased. The domestic palm oil market is currently mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the short - term Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market, with intense long - short game on the futures market [3][5][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On April 10, the BMD Malaysian palm oil closed at 4201 ringgit/ton, up 1.33% from the settlement price; the domestic continuous palm oil P2505 closed at 8754 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from the settlement price, with trading volume increasing to 641,100 lots and positions decreasing to 201,400 lots. The P2509 contract closed at 8186 yuan/ton, up 2.12% from the settlement price, with trading volume of 420,400 lots and positions increasing to 261,100 lots. The 05 - 09 spread narrowed to 568 yuan/ton, the soybean - palm main 05 - period spread was - 1080 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm main 05 - period spread was 511 yuan/ton [3] - On April 10, the spot price of palm oil at each port was 9200 - 9350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import profit was - 405.3 yuan/ton, the basis dropped to - 100.67 yuan/ton; the soybean - palm spot spread was - 1201.65 yuan/ton [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis - According to MPOB data, the production of Malaysian palm oil in March was 1.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; the end - of - month inventory was 1.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, the first increase in the past six months. High - frequency shipping data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of April increased by 29.29% - 52.79% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered tariffs, and the US tariff policy implementation was postponed, giving Malaysian palm oil an obvious export advantage [10] - The domestic palm oil has rigid - demand transactions, the inventory is still at a low level, the import profit is continuously low, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a need for replenishment in the later stage [10] 3. Future Outlook - Currently, domestic palm oil is mainly for rigid - demand procurement. In the short term, the Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market, and the long - short game on the futures market is intense. The price of the P2505 contract on the futures market has rebounded from the bottom, and the closing price is temporarily blocked by the upper 5 - day moving average. In the short term, under the stimulus of news, the price of the P2505 contract of palm oil futures may fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average [12]