关税冲突不断，铜盘面探涨

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current copper market is affected by high - level macro noise and trade conflicts, deviating from the fundamentals. However, in the long - term, the copper fundamentals remain resilient, showing a relatively strong trend. The market should pay attention to the pressure of filling the gap and whether there is a real demand gap after the pre - demand. The current market is relatively stable, and it is necessary to focus on whether new policies will emerge over the weekend [1]. 3. Summary by Section Strategy Analysis - The US March CPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, hitting a five - year low, and the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, with inflation cooling more than expected. The market's trading on tariff policies and economic uncertainties affects the copper market. The 3 - month SMM China electrolytic copper production increased by 6.39 tons month - on - month, a rise of 6.04%, and 12.27% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to March increased by 27.45 tons year - on - year, a growth of 9.4%. The national CPI in March decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing. The core CPI rose by 0.5% year - on - year. When copper prices fall, downstream purchasing sentiment is high, and the operating rate increases month - on - month. In March 2025, the operating rate of Chinese copper foil enterprises was 71.82%, up 4.17 percentage points month - on - month and 11.38 percentage points year - on - year [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened high and closed higher, closing at 75,230 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 400 to 97,284 lots, and the short positions increased by 284 to 91,691 lots. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On April 10, 2025, the LME official price was 8,981 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 3 dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of April 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 26.26 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.65 cents/pound. Smelters are expected to cut production [1][5]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 86,600 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period. As of April 7, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 121,400 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 209,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 117,100 short tons, an increase of 5,459 short tons from the previous period [8].