Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is generally bearish on the cotton market [2] Core Viewpoints - The global supply and demand adjustment in the 2024/25 cotton season is not significant, with a slight decrease in production, a decline in consumption, a minor reduction in imports and exports, and an increase in ending stocks [1][2] - The ongoing global trade conflict, especially the situation between China and the US, is the main factor influencing the short - term cotton market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - US trade and the planting and weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 2024/25 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - Production: Global production is down 15,000 tons, with China's production up 54,000 tons to 6.967 million tons, and no adjustments for other major producers. The new - season planting in China and the US has started, and the supply data is basically settled [1] - Consumption: Global consumption is down 114,000 tons month - on - month, with China's consumption down 109,000 tons, mainly due to the intensification of China - US trade frictions and the temporary halt of China's textile and clothing exports to the US [1] - Imports: Global imports are down 71,000 tons month - on - month, with China's imports down 66,000 tons to 1.415 million tons [2] - Exports: Global exports are down 81,000 tons, with Brazil's exports down 21,000 tons, the US's down 22,000 tons, Australia's down 22,000 tons, and Turkey's up 43,000 tons [2] - Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks are up 115,000 tons month - on - month, with China's up 98,000 tons, the US's up 22,000 tons, Australia's up 21,000 tons, and Brazil's up 22,000 tons [2] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Summary - Production: From 2020/21 to 2024/25 (April), the total global cotton production has changed from 24.735 million tons to 26.321 million tons, with a decrease of 15,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4] - Consumption: The total global cotton consumption has changed from 27.114 million tons to 25.261 million tons, with a decrease of 114,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4] - Imports: The total global cotton imports have changed from 10.577 million tons to 9.223 million tons, with a decrease of 71,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4] - Exports: The total global cotton exports have changed from 10.576 million tons to 9.217 million tons, with a decrease of 81,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4] - Ending Stocks: The total global cotton ending stocks have changed from 15.834 million tons to 17.17 million tons, with an increase of 115,000 tons from March to April 2024 [4]
棉花：全球消费下调，贸易冲突仍主导短期行情
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-04-11 11:53