历史视角下的美国关税分析：经济与资产影响

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Trade - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. are unlikely to resolve the structural trade deficit, leading to escalating tariff levels, particularly against China, which saw tariffs rise to 125%[7] - If trade negotiations occur mid-year, China's exports to the U.S. could decline by approximately 40%, impacting total exports by 5% and GDP by 0.6%[2] - Delayed negotiations until year-end could result in an 8% decline in total exports, with a 26% impact on trade surplus and a GDP effect of 1.2%[2] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Trends - The last significant rise in U.S. tariffs occurred between 1920-1933, contrasting sharply with the current economic and political landscape[2] - Historical tariff increases have often led to retaliatory measures from other countries, significantly affecting U.S. exports and contributing to economic downturns[40] - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised tariffs to historic highs, exacerbating the Great Depression and leading to a 66% decline in world trade from 1929 to 1934[46] Group 3: Asset Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the long term due to the "Triffin Dilemma," despite short-term volatility caused by market uncertainty[3] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain stable, with the Federal Reserve expected to pause interest rate cuts in May and potentially lower rates four times within the year, totaling 100 basis points[3] - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to face downward pressure due to policy uncertainties and recession fears, leading to continued volatility[3]