能源日报-20250411

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for oil prices remains effective, but due to risks such as trade wars and OPEC+ production increases, the space for a sharp rebound in oil prices is limited, and short-term prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with different factors affecting the cracking spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils [3] - Today, asphalt prices rebounded following crude oil. The fundamentals of asphalt itself are affected by factors such as processing profits and refinery maintenance, and its price trend is influenced by crude oil in the short term [3] - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the contraction of chemical demand after the reshaping of the trade flow [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - EIA lowered the oil demand growth rate for this year and next year. The cost support for oil prices is still effective, but considering various risks, the short-term oil price may fluctuate within a range [2] Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with FU rising more than LU. The cracking spread of FU is supported by the tight supply of heavy oil resources, while the cracking spread of LU is under downward pressure due to increased supply and a decline in the diesel cracking spread in Singapore [3] Asphalt - Today, BU rebounded following crude oil. The processing profit of diluted asphalt for refineries is poor, and the production enthusiasm is suppressed. The second-quarter operating rate of major refineries is restricted by maintenance. The short-term price trend of asphalt is influenced by crude oil [3] LPG - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price. After the crude oil stabilizes, the driving force for the futures price to rebound is expected to increase [4]