农林牧渔行业2025年一季报业绩前瞻：生猪养殖板块一季度业绩分化，看好优质成长标的

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural products sector [10] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the pig farming sector is expected to remain profitable, with pig prices not falling into a loss zone, and both pig output and per-head profits showing year-on-year increases [2][18] - Key recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, which are positioned well due to their cost advantages [2][36] - The feed sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with Hai Da Group recommended as a key player due to its expected growth in feed sales [2][8] - The pet food market is seeing a rise in domestic brand strength, with recommendations for leading companies such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and a suggestion to pay attention to Petty Co. [2][9] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in Q1 2025 is approximately 15.0 CNY/kg, up from 14.5 CNY/kg in Q1 2024, indicating a positive trend [7][19] - Average self-breeding profit is around 92.58 CNY/head in Q1 2025, a significant recovery from a loss of 170.26 CNY/head in Q1 2024 [7][19] - Quality pig farming companies have a total cost below 13 CNY/kg, maintaining over 200 CNY/head profit in Q1 2025 [19][36] Feed Sector - The feed sector's recovery is evident, with national industrial feed production reaching 49.2 million tons in January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [8][19] - Hai Da Group aims for a 12% growth in feed sales, with an expected increase of over 100,000 tons in Q1 2025, translating to a growth rate exceeding 20% [8][19] Pet Food - The pet food sector is witnessing a surge in domestic brands, with online sales growth of 13.6% in January-February 2025, and Guibao Pet's online sales growing over 50% [9][19] - Guibao Pet is expected to achieve over 30% growth in Q1 2025, with a projected net profit growth of around 25% [9][19] - Zhongchong Co. is focusing on new product launches, expecting a 25%-30% increase in domestic sales revenue and a net profit growth of approximately 50% in Q1 2025 [9][19]