商贸零售行业2025Q1业绩前瞻：渠道促业态升级，新消费驱动成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the retail industry [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that channel innovation drives the upgrade of retail formats, with new consumption trends propelling growth. It identifies three main investment lines: prioritizing domestic brands with strong innovation and consumer bases, focusing on retail channels that enhance efficiency, and selecting quality overseas enterprises with stable business models [2][4]. Summary by Sections Jewelry Industry - The jewelry sector faces pressure with a projected double-digit decline in gold jewelry sales due to rising gold prices, which increased by 37% year-on-year in Q1. Companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are expected to see profit declines of approximately 10% and 15%, respectively, while Chao Hong Ji is anticipated to grow by 15%-20% due to its focus on younger consumers and fixed-price products [5][16][17]. Retail Industry - The retail sector is undergoing continuous upgrades, with a 3.9% year-on-year growth in retail sales driven by the Spring Festival. Companies like Yonghui Supermarket are focusing on optimizing store formats, although short-term performance may be affected by low CPI and weak demand. Expected profit growth for Yonghui is projected between -15% and 0% [6][18][19]. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector shows signs of stabilization, with a 4.4% year-on-year growth in the cosmetics industry. Companies like Proya and Marubi are expected to see revenue growth of 3%-7% and 30%-35%, respectively, despite high base effects from the previous year [21][24][25]. Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce segment remains robust, although short-term profits may be pressured by tariff policies. Companies like Anker Innovation are expected to see profit growth of 30%-40% due to strong performance in their product categories [8][31][34].