华金期货黑色原料周报-20250411

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For iron ore, the overall demand remains stable with high pig iron production and low sinter powder inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation before the holiday [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is in excess, and both the futures and spot prices lack the momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Overseas Supply - The overseas shipment of iron ore is generally at a normal level. The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2548000 tons to 23.93 million tons this week, and the shipment from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased to the average level, dropping by 111000 tons to about 5.289 million tons. The arrival volume is expected to remain at an average level in the second quarter [6]. - Fortescue's iron ore shipment in Q4 2024 reached 48.9 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.56%, and the shipment target for the 2025 fiscal year is 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's Q4 iron ore production was 85.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%, and the annual production reached the upper limit of the forecast and the 2025 production target was raised to 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's Q4 iron ore production was 86.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the shipment volume was 85.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, with the 2025 shipment target unchanged at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's Q4 iron ore production in the Pilbara business was 73.071 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the 2025 fiscal year iron ore target guidance remains unchanged at 282 - 294 million tons [18]. Demand - The profit of steel mills is acceptable, and the pig iron production is expected to remain at a high level. This week, the pig iron production increased by 14900 tons to about 2.4022 million tons, the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated and declined, the port clearance volume remained at a high level, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory as needed [2][24]. Inventory - The sinter powder inventory remains at a low level, and the total port inventory decreased slightly by 1273900 tons to 143.4102 million tons this week, but the overall level is still high and is expected to remain in a balanced state. The imported sinter powder inventory of steel mills decreased steadily, dropping by 172300 tons to 12.4847 million tons this week [30][33]. Futures - Spot Structure - The futures and spot prices of iron ore are oscillating at a low level and are expected to remain in the range - bound state before May Day [37]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US is expected to enter a recession, the CPI has generally declined, and the tariff has affected market sentiment. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, and the US dollar index is under continuous downward pressure [43]. Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipment No specific analysis content provided other than the chart. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - The pig iron production is expected to remain at a high level. The coke profit continues to be negative, and the coke production is expected to remain at the current level [48][51]. Coking Coal Inventory - The independent coking coal inventory rebounded from a low level, increasing by 141000 tons to 9.6569 million tons this week, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased slightly by 100800 tons to about 7.7963 million tons, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. The port - imported coking coal inventory continued to decline and remained stable this week, dropping slightly by 9600 tons to 3.4892 million tons, and the mine clean coal inventory is at a high level [54][59]. Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, the 05 contract has been declining, and the downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, with no substantial turning point in the short term [63]. Coke Inventory - The coke enterprises' intention to raise prices is difficult to achieve. The independent coke production is at a low level, the inventory has been declining, but the port coke inventory has rebounded to a high level compared to the same period. This week, the total coke inventory did not change significantly, the pig iron production increased slightly by 14900 tons to 2.4022 million tons, and the national average coking profit this week was about - 49 yuan per ton [66][71]. Coke Term Structure - The coke futures price has been continuously declining, the decline of the spot price is weaker than that of the futures, the basis has narrowed, but it still shows a premium structure [75].