2025年3月美国物价数据点评：仍需警惕通胀上行风险

Inflation Data Summary - In March 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from February, and below the market expectation of 2.5%[2] - The core CPI year-on-year was 2.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from January and also below the market expectation of 3%[6] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.1%, marking the first negative value since July 2022, while the core CPI adjusted month-on-month was 0.1%[6] Contributing Factors to Inflation Changes - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by a slowdown in energy prices and core services excluding rent[2] - Energy inflation year-on-year was -3.3%, a significant drop of 3.1 percentage points from February, contributing to a near 0.2 percentage point decrease in both year-on-year and month-on-month CPI growth[8] - Core service inflation, excluding rent, saw a year-on-year decrease from 3.8% in February to 3.3% in March, with a month-on-month slowdown to 0.3%[15] Market Implications - The weakening of the US dollar's credit foundation has led to simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with investors showing decreased confidence in dollar assets[5] - Despite the unexpected cooling of inflation data, the market did not react significantly, as the effects of tariffs on inflation have yet to fully materialize[20] - There is a potential risk of further increases in US Treasury yields due to the weakening dollar credit foundation and anticipated inflation pressures from tariffs in the second quarter[20]