沥青周报：跟随成本端巨震-20250411

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to low refinery operations and increased shipments, asphalt factory inventory dropped to a low level for the same period, and the fundamentals improved slightly. However, actual demand remained weak, and asphalt only followed crude oil price fluctuations [8]. - This week, asphalt started with a daily limit down and then fluctuated widely, generally following the cost - end crude oil. The refinery operating rate increased slightly, shipments declined significantly, and factory and social inventories increased slightly, with absolute levels lower than in previous years [8]. - Since the tariff policy is unstable, crude oil may still fluctuate in the short term. It is expected that asphalt will mainly follow the cost - end, but as the most intensive period of counter - measures and policy adjustments has passed, volatility is expected to gradually decline. Actual demand for asphalt remains weak, but good weather in the north is conducive to seasonal demand recovery and is not expected to impact the market in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoint - Last Week's Main Viewpoint: Low refinery operations and increased shipments led to a decline in asphalt factory inventory to a low level for the same period, with slightly improved fundamentals. Actual demand was weak, and asphalt followed crude oil price fluctuations. The US tariff policy might cause oil price fluctuations [8]. - This Week's Trend Analysis: Asphalt started with a daily limit down and then fluctuated widely, following the cost - end crude oil [8]. - This Week's Industry Data: The refinery operating rate increased slightly, shipments declined significantly, and factory and social inventories increased slightly, with absolute levels lower than in previous years [8]. - This Week's Main Viewpoint: Crude oil may still fluctuate in the short term due to unstable tariff policies. Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end, and volatility may gradually decline. Actual demand is weak, but northern weather is favorable for demand recovery and won't impact the market in the short term [8]. 02 Data Overview - 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis: The data shows historical trends of asphalt futures prices, monthly spreads (e.g., BU2506 - BU2509), and basis in East China and Shandong regions [10][11]. - 2.2 Asphalt Supply: It presents data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate over multiple years [13][14]. - 2.3 Asphalt Demand: The data includes asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent consumption [16][17]. - 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports: It shows historical data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China, as well as the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices [19][20]. - 2.5 Asphalt Inventory: The data covers factory inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume [22][23]. - 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: It presents data on Shandong's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [25][26]. - 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: It shows data on East China's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [28][29]. - 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: It presents data on South China's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [31][32]. - 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule: Multiple refineries are undergoing or have undergone maintenance. The total maintenance capacity is 2041 million tons per year, and the maintenance loss is 836,000 tons [34].