Guohai Securities·2025-04-11 15:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy is expected to further impact the global industrial landscape, accelerating China's technological self-reliance and self-control process, with positive prospects for the development of domestic software and hardware markets [7][9]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is leading to increased tariffs on Chinese imports, which may result in a shift towards domestic alternatives in software and hardware sectors [24]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Overview - The U.S. has enacted "reciprocal tariffs," which may accelerate China's self-reliance process in technology [13]. - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. include a 34% increase on all imports from the U.S. to China, which is expected to raise the costs of imported software and hardware products, thus promoting a shift towards domestic alternatives [24]. Software Impact - The trend towards model autonomy remains unchanged, with significant potential for self-replacement in foundational and industrial software [7]. - China's large model industry is rapidly catching up, with domestic models like DeepSeek and Qwen continuously improving their capabilities [7]. Hardware Impact - The domestic chip industry is expected to accelerate, with significant growth potential in domestic computing power [8]. - In 2024, NVIDIA and Intel's revenues in China were $17.1 billion and $15.5 billion respectively, while domestic CPU and GPU manufacturers are increasingly competitive [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "reciprocal tariff" policy will influence the global industrial structure and accelerate China's technological self-reliance, maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [9]. Related Targets - Key software companies include China Software, Taiji, and DaMeng Data, while hardware targets include Haiguang Information, Inspur, and Huawei [10][11].