Minsheng Securities·2025-04-12 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, specifically recommending China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) due to their strong fundamentals and dividend characteristics [4]. Core Insights - The EIA has significantly revised down its demand and U.S. production growth forecasts, indicating that $60 per barrel is a strong support level for U.S. supply [2][9]. - Global oil demand for 2025 is projected at 103.64 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.9 million barrels per day, but the growth rate has been revised down by 370,000 barrels per day [2][9]. - The report suggests that the current oil price of $60 per barrel is a clear bottom, supported by historical data and the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil production [2][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Overview - The international trade environment is uncertain, leading to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude dropping below $60 per barrel and later rebounding above $65 per barrel [1][8]. Section 2: Supply and Demand Forecast - The EIA's April report shows a global oil supply surplus of 460,000 barrels per day for 2025, up from a previous surplus of 40,000 barrels per day, primarily due to a downward revision in demand growth [2][9]. - U.S. oil production growth has been revised down by 170,000 barrels per day, while OPEC's production growth has been adjusted upward by 130,000 barrels per day [2][9]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production growth and low breakeven costs, such as CNOOC, CNPC, and Sinopec, as well as companies in the growth phase like New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum [2][9]. Section 4: Company Performance and Valuation - Key companies are projected to have stable earnings with attractive valuations, with CNOOC, CNPC, and Sinopec all rated as "Buy" based on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4].