建议把握大盘低价转债配置窗口

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of external factors has been increasing. The near - future will be a period of high volatility, leading to a rapid shrinkage of total demand. The private sector will restart de - leveraging. The likely path is to restart QE while maintaining reasonable and loose liquidity, which means the long - end of US Treasury bonds may fluctuate within a range, and the short - end yield is likely to fall rather than rise, with the term spread oscillating between 30 - 50bp. In China, although there is a certain aggregate pressure, policy hedging is more timely, consistent, and effective, so the downside risk is relatively limited. After the double pressure of evaluation and valuation, major weighted targets present a good allocation opportunity, and it is recommended to buy in batches at low prices [3][42][43]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1. Equity Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Rise - From April 7th to April 11th, the equity market overall rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 4578.88 billion yuan to 15751.42 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 40.98%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries closed up, with 14 industries rising more than 2%. Industries such as non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, computers, machinery and equipment, and media led the gains, rising 7.08%, 6.96%, 6.74%, 5.46%, and 5.16% respectively [13][14][16]. 1.2. Convertible Bond Market Overall Decline, Industry Overall Decline - From April 7th to April 11th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.70%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 2 industries closed up. Food and beverage, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the gains, rising 0.90% and 0.13% respectively. Industries such as power equipment, automobiles, machinery and equipment, non - ferrous metals, and communications led the losses, falling 2.91%, 2.87%, 2.83%, 2.65%, and 2.60% respectively. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 976.96 billion yuan, a significant increase of 465.46 billion yuan, a 91.00% change compared to the previous period. About 12.65% of individual bonds rose [18]. 1.3. Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From April 7th to April 11th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were negative, and the underlying stock market had a larger weekly decline. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased by 91.00% compared to the previous period, and was at the 90.10% quantile level since 2022; the trading volume of the underlying stock market increased by 82.01% compared to the previous period, at the 92.00% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of both the underlying stock and convertible bond markets increased significantly, and the convertible bond trading volume had a larger increase. About 12.24% of convertible bonds and 11.06% of underlying stocks closed up, and about 87.29% of convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market was better this week [39]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - The uncertainty of external factors has been increasing. The near - future will be a period of high volatility, leading to a rapid shrinkage of total demand. The private sector will restart de - leveraging. The likely path is to restart QE while maintaining reasonable and loose liquidity, which means the long - end of US Treasury bonds may fluctuate within a range, and the short - end yield is likely to fall rather than rise, with the term spread oscillating between 30 - 50bp. In China, although there is a certain aggregate pressure, policy hedging is more timely, consistent, and effective, so the downside risk is relatively limited. After the double pressure of evaluation and valuation, major weighted targets present a good allocation opportunity, and it is recommended to buy in batches at low prices. The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Nanyin Convertible Bond, Hangyin Convertible Bond, Qilu Convertible Bond, Dayu Convertible Bond, Chuanheng Convertible Bond, Xinhua Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, Feikai Convertible Bond, Wutian Convertible Bond, and Shangyin Convertible Bond [3][42][43]