关税应对策略三部曲（一）：逆风而行

Core Insights - The report highlights that the tariff increase during Trump's second term is significantly higher than during his first term, with a systematic adjustment of tariffs on major trading partners, including a 34% tariff on China and up to 49% on certain Southeast Asian countries [5][13]. - Historical analysis shows that industries such as military, retail, finance, environmental protection, public utilities, rare earths, and agriculture performed well during previous tariff implementations, indicating potential resilience in the face of new tariffs [1][6]. - The report suggests that market risk appetite may improve with changes in domestic and international policies, particularly monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic fiscal measures [1][7]. Tariff Impact Analysis - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are expected to have a differentiated impact, with industries less exposed to the U.S. market, such as insurance, banking, and essential consumer goods, likely to show more resilience [5][6]. - Industries with high exposure to the U.S. market, such as apparel, computer hardware, automotive aftermarket, and electronic components, may face significant performance challenges post-tariff implementation [5][19]. - The report notes that sectors like chemicals and agricultural products have historically outperformed during retaliatory tariff announcements, suggesting a potential for similar outcomes in the current context [6][21]. Industry Performance Outlook - Historical data from 2018 indicates that sectors characterized by self-sufficiency and stability, such as military and insurance, maintained relative stability amid tariff-induced market volatility [6][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors that can benefit from domestic industry substitution effects, particularly during the policy window prior to tariff implementation [6][23]. - The analysis of market performance post-tariff announcements shows that industries like military and insurance have consistently outperformed, while export-oriented sectors like home decoration and leisure have lagged [23][24].