中美贸易拉锯下的板块选择

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant disruption to the international economic order caused by the recent increase in tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods, with rates rising to 125% as of April 11, 2025 [1][2] - The ongoing trade tensions between China and the US are reinforcing the need for China to enhance its domestic circulation, expand openness to non-US economies, and achieve technological self-sufficiency [1][3] Domestic Circulation - Compared to the high inflation and debt levels in the US, China has more room for monetary and fiscal policy adjustments, including expected interest rate cuts and the issuance of special bonds [4] - Key sectors to focus on include infrastructure-related industries, fertility support sectors, and consumer goods directly related to public needs [4] Expansion to Non-US Economies - China's export dependence on developed countries has significantly decreased, with exports to the US dropping from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, a decline of 4.5 percentage points [5][11] - Exports to ASEAN and countries along the Silk Road are becoming increasingly important, with their shares rising to 16.4% and 20.3% respectively in 2024, up from 12.83% in 2018 [6][11] Industry Chain Autonomy - The increase in tariffs is expected to lead to price hikes in certain industries, prompting a push for domestic production and localization [7] - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of achieving self-sufficiency in critical sectors, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing and high-end medical equipment [7][9] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific sectors and companies that could benefit from the trends of domestic circulation, expansion to non-US markets, and industry chain autonomy, including semiconductor firms and logistics companies [9][10]