国信期货有色（铝、氧化铝）周报：减产规模逐渐扩大，氧化铝期价或有支撑关税政策多变，沪铝或维持较大波动性-20250413

Report Title - Title: "减产规模逐渐扩大，氧化铝期价或有支撑 关税政策多变，沪铝或维持较大波动性 —— 国信期货有色（铝、氧化铝）周报" [2] - Date: April 13, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Alumina: Currently, both the futures and spot prices of alumina have fallen below the industry's average cash cost line, with persistent bearish sentiment in the spot market and ongoing price declines. Supply - side production cuts are increasing, which may support near - term alumina prices. Domestic demand is stable, but export demand is expected to decrease as the export window is closed. Alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate to find support levels, and short - term operations are recommended, focusing on cost dynamics and supply - side production cuts [16][100][102]. - Aluminum: The continuous decline in alumina prices has led to a decrease in electrolytic aluminum smelting costs, and the industry remains highly profitable, with some tolerance for price drops. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by power grid construction and photovoltaic installations. Inventory is in a seasonal destocking trend, which supports aluminum prices. However, as the peak season is ending, demand in some sectors is weakening. Due to the changing tariff policies, the market is highly volatile, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate widely between 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Temporary observation is recommended, with continuous attention to macro - sentiment changes and external market shocks [17][101][102]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Market Overview - Macro - level: In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, while the core CPI rebounded. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, with positive price changes in some industries. In the US, the CPI in March decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 2.4% year - on - year. The US government will suspend reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days, and traders have reduced their bets on a Fed rate cut in May, expecting four rate cuts by the end of the year [8]. - Supply - side: In March 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. By the end of March, the built - in production capacity was about 45.81 million tons, and the industry's operating rate rose to 95.78% [9]. - Spot: As of April 11, the average domestic alumina spot price was 2,869 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 151 yuan/ton from April 3. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 19,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 990 yuan/ton from April 3 [12]. - Demand - side: As of April 10, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.2%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week. Only the aluminum cable sector's operating rate rebounded. In March 2025, the comprehensive PMI index of the domestic aluminum processing industry was 61.6%, a 6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [12]. - Cost and profit: As of April 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 3,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 74 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the industry's losses widened to nearly 200 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 300 yuan/ton from April 3, and the industry's average profit was around 3,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Inventory - side: As of April 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from April 7, and the aluminum rod inventory was 235,100 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from April 7. After a slight post - holiday inventory build - up, the inventory resumed its destocking trend, supporting aluminum prices. The aluminum - to - water ratio in March was 74.22%, an increase of about 4% from February. As of April 11, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 105,244 tons, a decrease of 26,388 tons from April 3. From April 3 to April 10, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12,475 tons to 446,325 tons [13]. - Overall market: This week, affected by tariff policy changes, market volatility was high. Alumina fluctuated weakly, and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated widely [16]. [8][9][12] 3.1.2 Price Trends and Premiums - This week, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, the spot aluminum price in the spot market decreased, and the spot was at a premium. LME aluminum fluctuated weakly this week, and the spot was at a premium [30]. 3.1.3 Exchange Inventory - As of April 11, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 105,244 tons, a decrease of 26,388 tons from April 3. From April 3 to April 10, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12,475 tons to 446,325 tons [33]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Alumina - Spot price: As of April 11, the average domestic alumina spot price was 2,869 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 151 yuan/ton from April 3. The spot price continued to decline, and the spot premium narrowed to a normal level. The spot market remained bearish [39]. - Weekly operating rate: As of April 10, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 80.77%, a decrease of about 1.81% from the previous week. There were continuous production cut announcements, and the production cut scale was expanding, which may support alumina futures prices [42]. - Import and export: As of April 10, the FOB price of Australian alumina was $330/ton, a decrease of $43/ton from April 3. The domestic alumina spot price declined, and the price difference between domestic and foreign alumina narrowed to about 100 yuan/ton. Both the import and export windows were closed, and export demand is expected to decrease [43]. - Cost and profit: As of April 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 3,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 74 yuan/ton from the previous week. Due to the continuous decline in spot prices, industry losses widened to nearly 200 yuan/ton [48]. - Port inventory: As of April 10, the alumina port inventory was 27,500 tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons from the previous week, remaining at a near - 4 - year low. In January - February 2025, the cumulative alumina export was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.9%, with a net export of 327,300 tons. After the export window closed, the alumina export volume is expected to gradually decrease [54]. 3.2.2 Cost - Coal price: As of April 11, the pit - mouth coal prices in Yulin and Ordos increased slightly. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in March was about 0.475 yuan/kWh, a slight decrease from the previous month [55]. - Pre - baked anode price: The pre - baked anode price remained stable this week [59]. - Overall cost: As of April 10, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 300 yuan/ton from April 3. The industry's average profit remained around 3,000 yuan/ton [63]. 3.2.3 Supply - March production: In March 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. By the end of March, the built - in production capacity was about 45.81 million tons, and the industry's operating rate rose to 95.78% [65]. - Yunnan's situation: Yunnan's large - scale hydropower stations are mainly supplied by precipitation. In 2025, most areas in Yunnan are expected to have precipitation close to or less than normal, and the probability of meteorological drought from April to May is high, which may affect production capacity [69]. 3.2.4 Spot - As of April 11, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 19,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 990 yuan/ton from April 3 [71]. 3.2.5 Demand - As of April 10, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.2%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week. Only the aluminum cable sector's operating rate rebounded. In March 2025, the comprehensive PMI index of the domestic aluminum processing industry was 61.6%, a 6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [73]. 3.2.6 Inventory - As of April 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from April 7, and the aluminum rod inventory was 235,100 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from April 7. After a slight post - holiday inventory build - up, the inventory resumed its destocking trend, supporting aluminum prices. The aluminum - to - water ratio in March was 74.22%, an increase of about 4% from February [79]. 3.2.7 Import and Export - The aluminum ingot import profit window is closed, and the Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio has slightly rebounded. In January - February 2025, China's cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 859,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [85]. 3.2.8 End - users - Real estate: The real estate market is slowly recovering [89]. - New energy vehicles: In March, the retail sales of the passenger car market were 1.94 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. The production of new energy passenger cars in March was 1.165 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 43.0% and a month - on - month increase of 42.1%. From January to March, the cumulative production was 2.924 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46.0% [93]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Macro - level: Continuously monitor market sentiment fluctuations caused by tariff policies and geopolitical changes [100]. - Alumina: Alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate to find support levels, and short - term operations are recommended, focusing on cost dynamics and supply - side production cuts [100]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate widely between 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Temporary observation is recommended, with continuous attention to macro - sentiment changes and external market shocks [101].