国信期货苹果周报：低库存叠加消费旺季，盘面偏强运行-20250413

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Low inventory combined with the consumption peak season drives the apple futures market to run strongly, with a high probability of upward movement in the later stage. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [35]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2505, continued its strong trend, supported by fundamentals [8]. 2. Supply - Side Situation - As of April 10, 2025, the total remaining apple inventory in national cold storages was 3.3096 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining inventory in Shandong's cold storages was 1.6887 million tons, and that in Shaanxi's cold storages was 0.9232 million tons [13]. 3. Demand - Side Situation - As of April 10, 2025, the inventory clearance rate was 60.62%, 3.24 percentage points lower than last week and 10.86 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Cold storage shipments were good. From April to May is the peak apple -出库 period. The cold storage -出库 in the northwest region is in the later stage, with tight supply. Some merchants have shifted to Shandong for procurement, and growers and cold storage operators are a bit reluctant to sell, asking for relatively high prices [18]. - In February, the export volume of domestic fresh apples was about 68,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The cumulative export volume from January to February was about 159,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.85%. The export performance is expected to be good in the first quarter [21]. - As of April 11, in Shandong Qixia, the prices of different grades and types of apples varied. For example, the price of 80 above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.2 - 3.3 yuan per catty [31].