HANGYANG LIMITED(SZ:002430) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-04-13 03:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the industrial gas sector in China, characterized by a dual strategy of "defense and offense" focused on domestic demand. The gas industry is currently at a cyclical low, and after undergoing an "extreme pressure test" in 2024, the company's performance is expected to turn upward [1][4] - The market is concerned about potential declines in the company's performance due to macroeconomic pressures and international trade frictions. However, the company is primarily a domestic demand player, with 95% of its revenue coming from domestic sources in 2024, making it less susceptible to trade risks. With gas prices hitting historical lows in 2024, the company's performance is believed to have bottomed out [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Pipeline Gas - The company's pipeline gas segment provides a defensive attribute, showing stable growth with minimal impact from macroeconomic fluctuations. The cumulative signed oxygen production capacity for 2024 is expected to reach 3.5 million Nm³/h, an 8.6% increase year-on-year, ensuring steady growth in pipeline gas volume [2][4] - The company holds a 9% market share in the third-party gas supply market as of 2021, with expectations to increase this to 30-40% in the long term, contributing to stable long-term performance [2] Retail Gas - The retail gas segment represents the company's offensive strategy, with current gas prices at historical lows. As of April 11, the comprehensive industrial gas price is 453 RMB/ton, down 27% year-on-year, and at the 12th percentile of historical data, reflecting a 77% decline from the peak in 2021. If the macroeconomic environment improves, retail gas could provide significant performance upside [2][4] Air Separation Equipment - The company is the leading domestic air separation equipment manufacturer, benefiting from demand in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector and overseas markets. The share of foreign trade orders is expected to reach nearly 17% in 2024, indicating robust growth [3][4] Other Areas - The company is exploring new growth areas such as specialty gases and new energy gases, aiming to address supply chain challenges and provide solutions for various industries, including semiconductors and aerospace [3][4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.067 billion RMB, 1.298 billion RMB, and 1.513 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17%. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 18, 15, and 12 [11][13]