Minsheng Securities·2025-04-13 05:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Insights - The ongoing escalation of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a divergence in demand for construction materials and steel plates, with a notable impact on export demand for plates [3][4]. - Domestic steel prices have decreased, with significant drops in various categories, including rebar and cold-rolled steel [8][9]. - The overall steel production has seen a slight decline, with total output for major steel varieties at 8.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.46 million tons week-on-week [2][3]. Price Trends - As of April 11, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,170 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [8][9]. - The prices for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel have also seen declines, with hot-rolled at 3,330 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY) and cold-rolled at 3,910 CNY/ton (down 100 CNY) [8][9]. Production and Inventory - The production of rebar increased by 3.72 million tons to 2.32 million tons this week, while total inventory decreased by 388,300 tons to 11.76 million tons [2][3]. - The social inventory of rebar decreased by 278,500 tons, while factory inventory increased by 72,500 tons [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: 1. Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector 2. CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials in the special steel sector 3. Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, and Youfa Group in the pipe materials sector [3][4]. - It also recommends paying attention to high-temperature alloy stocks, specifically Fushun Special Steel [3]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decrease in long-process steel profits, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins down by 19 CNY/ton, 41 CNY/ton, and 38 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Short-process electric furnace steel profits have seen a slight increase [1][3]. International Market Overview - The U.S. steel market prices have remained stable, with hot-rolled coil prices at 1,040 USD/ton and cold-rolled at 1,270 USD/ton [21][23]. - European steel prices have increased, with hot-rolled prices at 715 USD/ton, up 25 USD from the previous week [21][23]. Raw Material Market - Domestic iron ore prices have shown a mixed trend, with some prices declining, such as Brazilian powder at 850 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY [26][27]. - Scrap steel prices have also decreased, with a current price of 2,030 CNY/ton, down 60 CNY from last week [26][27].