A股投资策略周报：关税冲击落地，A股重回上行-20250413

Core Insights - The report indicates that after the tariff impact, there is a need for policies to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for more incremental policies to be introduced in the upcoming Politburo meeting, particularly in consumption, real estate, and livelihood areas [2][5][10] - The report highlights that the recent tariff adjustments have led to a marginal improvement in the negative impacts of tariffs, with the market expected to recover and enter an upward cycle [2][9] - The report emphasizes that the focus for the year will be on domestic demand policies and the application of AI technologies [9][10] Policy Directions - Consumption policies are expected to be strengthened, with historical precedents showing that direct cash subsidies and supply-side optimization are effective during severe external shocks [11][12] - The real estate sector may see increased efforts in city-specific policies and urban village renovations, aiming to stabilize the housing market [13] - Livelihood policies may include nationwide childbirth subsidies and measures to stabilize employment, reflecting a broader commitment to social welfare [14] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in the A-share market were primarily due to external shocks, including trade tensions and global market volatility [5][6] - The report indicates that the sales of excavators and new energy vehicles have shown significant year-on-year growth, suggesting a recovery in certain sectors [5] - The report mentions that the ETF market has seen record inflows, indicating strong institutional support for the A-share market [44][46] Tariff Exemptions - The report details that the U.S. has granted significant tariff exemptions on electronic products, which could positively impact China's exports to the U.S., with an estimated export value of $100.2 billion affected by these exemptions [49]