国泰君安期货金银周报-20250413

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver has the potential for a catch - up rally. Gold is considered relatively strong, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 750 - 780 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. - Gold is the optimal destination for funds in the current intense tariff game. The reasons to be bullish on gold include increased distrust of the US dollar due to extreme tariff situations, the loss of the US Treasury's safe - haven function leading to funds flowing into gold, and a significant increase in the probability of US interest rate cuts this year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - Precious Metals Prices: London gold rose 5.76%, and London silver fell - 0.22%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 96.9 to 103.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 2.28%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.48% (2 - year 3.96%), and the US dollar index was 99.7 [3]. - Futures and Spot Data: Different precious metals contracts showed various price changes and trading volumes. For example, Comex gold 2506 rose 6.51%, and Comex silver 2506 rose 9.04% [9]. - Inventory and Position Data: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.5 million ounces to 44.58 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio decreased to 50.1%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 7.4 million ounces to 497.48 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio increased to 32.1% [40][42]. 3.2 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - Overseas Spot - Futures Spread: For gold, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 16.63 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 21.9 dollars/ounce. For silver, the London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread widened to 0.0862 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 0.43 dollars/ounce [13][16]. - Domestic Spot - Futures Spread: The gold spot - futures spread was 0.45 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 14 yuan/gram, also at the upper end of the historical range [19][22]. - Inter - month Spread: The gold inter - month spread was 2.74 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver inter - month spread was 61 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [26][31]. - Delivery Cost for Long - Short Arbitrage between Near and Far Months: Different combinations of gold and silver contracts have different delivery costs, including fixed and floating costs [34][35][36][37]. - Delivery Fee Direction of Spot Deferred Contracts in Shanghai Gold Exchange: Gold was mainly from short to long, indicating strong receiving power, while silver was mainly from long to short, indicating strong delivering power [38]. - CFTC Non - commercial Positions: COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold declined significantly, and those in silver declined slightly [47]. - ETF Positions: The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 20.35 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 91.97 tons [51][53]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates: The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered this week, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [63]. - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales, etc., to show the inflation and consumption situation [68]. - Non - farm Employment Performance: It includes data on new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, etc. [71][72][73]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: Although mentioned, specific details are not elaborated in the provided text. - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index: Although mentioned, specific details are not elaborated in the provided text. - Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability: The report shows the probability of Fed interest rate cuts at different times through data tables [80].