铅产业链周度报告-20250413

Report Information - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Author: Mo Xiaoxiong from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: April 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Strength Analysis: Neutral [3] Core Views - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices slightly rebounding upward [3]. - Against the backdrop of a sharp decline in lead prices, the supply side shows strong reluctance to sell, and secondary lead has fallen into a loss - making situation. The supply of primary lead is expected to decrease due to maintenance in some regions and smelter warehousing, resulting in a slightly tight spot market. For secondary lead, there is a possibility of production cuts due to losses [5]. - Although the battery enterprise operating rate has recovered after the holiday, the consumer market is expected to weaken in the medium - term. The terminal market has entered the off - season, leading to an increase in battery inventory and a downward trend in the operating rate. The demand in the second quarter is expected to weaken marginally, putting pressure on prices [5]. - In the short term, after the tariff shock, lead prices are expected to converge slightly upward. In the medium - term, lead prices are under pressure in the second quarter, but the downside is limited. There is still restocking support from large battery enterprises, and the cost of waste batteries provides significant support [5]. Summary by Directory Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - Price and Spread: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,825 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.61%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,920 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.56%. LmeS - Lead 3 had a weekly increase of 4.53%. The LME lead premium, bonded area lead premium, and other spreads showed different changes [6]. - Inventory: SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,504 tons to 56,132 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3,150 tons to 62,646 tons. The social inventory decreased by 500 tons to 69,500 tons, while the LME lead inventory increased by 12,175 tons to 247,425 tons [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 32,358 lots, a decrease of 20,798 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 34,875 lots, a decrease of 13,040 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 3,770 lots, a decrease of 409 lots, and the open interest was 158,382 lots, an increase of 12,007 lots [6]. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, domestic production, inventory, and operating rate of lead concentrate showed different trends over time. The import TC and domestic TC remained stable, while the import and domestic lead concentrate smelting profits changed [22][23]. - Primary Lead: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead showed different trends in different years. The by - products of primary lead production, such as silver and sulfuric acid, also had corresponding price and production changes [24][25]. - Secondary Lead: The production of secondary lead showed different trends over time. The cost of secondary lead was affected by waste battery prices, and the profit of secondary lead significantly shrank, with a possible production cut [4][24][26]. - Import and Export: The export volume, net import volume, and import profit and loss of lead showed different trends over time [27]. Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - Lead - Acid Batteries: The export volume, operating rate, and inventory days of lead - acid batteries showed different trends over time. The operating rate of battery enterprises had a post - holiday recovery, but there was a downward trend in the medium - term [5][30]. - End - Users: The production of automobiles and motorcycles, as well as the actual consumption of lead, showed different trends over time [31].