紫金矿业：金流砥柱拨云诡，铜量再升定磐石-20250413

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 789.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8% [3][16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 101.7 billion yuan, up 62.4% year-on-year and 32.2% quarter-on-quarter [3][16] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of copper and gold, with a strong outlook for both commodities [5][38] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company reported a revenue of 789.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 101.7 billion yuan and a net profit margin of 12.88% [3][16] - The gross profit margin was 22.89%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.28 percentage points [3][16] Production Growth - In Q1 2025, copper production was 288,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while gold production was 19.1 tons, up 13.4% year-on-year [4][23] - The company is on track to meet its annual production targets for copper and gold, achieving 25% and 22% of the targets respectively in Q1 [4][23] Price and Cost Analysis - The average LME copper price in Q1 2025 was 9,352 USD/ton, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [5][37] - The average Comex gold price was 2,868 USD/ounce, up 38.5% year-on-year [5][38] - The company maintained low production costs, with significant improvements in gross margins across its key products [6][50] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.89%, down 3.71 percentage points year-on-year [8][58] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 7.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.60 percentage points [8][58] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts net profits of 390 billion yuan, 430 billion yuan, and 467 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [64] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global mining industry, with strong growth potential and effective cost control [64]