螺纹钢：外部担忧加重，弱势震荡，热轧卷板，外部担忧加重，弱势震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market sentiment was volatile, and both rebar and hot-rolled coil showed weak oscillations. The supply side saw a continued increase in blast furnace capacity utilization, but the output of each variety stopped rising and declined, with the decline in hot-rolled coil output being more significant. The demand side showed a slight improvement in terminal transactions, and the sharp price drop stimulated a partial recovery in speculative demand. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decrease, although the decline slowed down. Overall, due to the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions during the holiday period, which led to a significant decline in the external market and the spread of market pessimism, rebar and hot-rolled coil may continue their weak pattern [6][27][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Market Trends - Futures Market: The main rebar 2510 contract oscillated downward, closing at 3,131 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 3.0734 million lots and an open interest of 1.6654 million lots, an increase of 340,200 lots. The main hot-rolled coil 2510 contract also oscillated downward, closing at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 1.1052 million lots and an open interest of 1.1975 million lots, an increase of 252,300 lots [2][10]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major domestic regions generally declined. For example, the rebar price in Beijing (theoretical weight) dropped 80 yuan/ton to 3,160 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil price in Tianjin dropped 70 yuan/ton to 3,230 yuan/ton [12]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures-Spot Spread: The basis of the main rebar 2510 contract against Shanghai's rebar spot was 29.0 yuan/ton, a change of -4 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of the main hot-rolled coil 2510 contract against Shanghai's hot-rolled coil spot was 8.0 yuan/ton, a change of +12 yuan/ton from the previous week [14][15]. - Inter-Month Spread: The spread between rebar 2505 - 2510 was -81 yuan/ton, a change of -14 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between hot-rolled coil 2505 - 2510 was -23 yuan/ton, a change of 0 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. - Rebar-Hot Rolled Coil Spread: The spread between Shanghai's spot hot-rolled coil and rebar was 90 yuan/ton, a change of -30.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between hot-rolled coil 2505 and rebar 2505 was 169 yuan/ton, a change of -4 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spread between hot-rolled coil 2510 and rebar 2510 was 111 yuan/ton, a change of -18 yuan/ton from the previous week [17]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 90.19%, a week-on-week increase of 0.56%. In late March 2025, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises in China was 2.125 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous period. The weekly output of various steel products totaled 8.7106 million tons, a decrease of 14,600 tons from the previous week. The output of the five major steel products stopped rising and declined, with the decline in hot-rolled coil output being more significant [27]. 3.2.2 Demand - The trading volume of construction steel products among major domestic traders was 558,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 67,800 tons. Terminal transactions increased slightly week-on-week, and the sharp price drop stimulated a partial recovery in speculative demand [4][33]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The social inventory of steel products in major domestic cities was 11.7673 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 387,500 tons. The total inventory of all steel products in domestic steel mills was 4.8388 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 92,700 tons. The combined social and mill inventory was 16.6061 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 294,800 tons. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, and the inventory of each variety decreased [5][35]. 3.2.4 Profit - This week, the on-screen and spot profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil generally declined. As of this week, the on-screen profit of the rebar 2505 contract was -18.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The on-screen profit of the hot-rolled coil 2505 contract was 100.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot profit of rebar was 7.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.96 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spot profit of hot-rolled coil was 47.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 111.96 yuan/ton from the previous week [38]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - The prices of major raw materials showed mixed trends this week. Tangshan steel billet dropped 70 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton, the Platts 62% index dropped 3.45 US dollars to 98.35 US dollars per dry ton, and the arrival price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan remained at 1,310 yuan/ton [40]. 3.2.6 Technical Analysis - This week, the main rebar 2510 contract broke through the support level and moved downward, with a bearish moving average arrangement. The upper resistance level was around 3,350 yuan/ton, and the lower support level was around 3,050 yuan/ton. The main hot-rolled coil 2510 contract also broke through the support level and moved downward, with a bearish moving average arrangement. The upper resistance level was around 3,450 yuan/ton, and the lower support level was around 3,150 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Recommendations - This week, concerns about systemic risks intensified, and rebar and hot-rolled coil oscillated downward. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of steel mills increased, but the output of each variety stopped rising and declined, with the decline in hot-rolled coil output being more significant. Due to recent profit contractions and increased external uncertainties, steel mills were cautious about increasing production. On the demand side, as prices dropped significantly, trading volume improved, and some speculative demand recovered. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, but the decline slowed down. Overall, recent market concerns about systemic risks caused by Sino-US trade frictions have been increasing, and the weak oscillation pattern is expected to continue [47].