长线看多债市，下周多空机会并存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for treasury bonds are all "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term bullish on the bond market, with both long and short opportunities coexisting next week. Before the double - cut expectation is falsified, the market is in a long - position market, but due to limited odds for going long and disturbances from factors like trade negotiations and funds, the market may weaken slightly at times. Next week, the market may face downward pressure in the first half of the week, and it's feasible to lay out short - term short positions at high prices at the beginning of the week. After the market weakens, short - term long positions can be laid out at low prices [2][17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 7th to April 13th, treasury bond futures rose significantly. Influenced by trade conflicts on Monday, global risk appetite dropped sharply, and treasury bond futures rose significantly. On Tuesday, due to increased exchange - rate depreciation pressure, unchanged tight liquidity, and rising stocks, treasury bond futures corrected. On Wednesday, with the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy and marginal easing of liquidity, treasury bond futures rose, but long - term bonds performed relatively weakly as the stock market fluctuated upward. On Thursday, as the US postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, the market's concern about tariff threats decreased, risk appetite was strong, long - term varieties performed weakly, but short - term varieties performed strongly as liquidity eased marginally, and the yield curve steepened. On Friday, treasury bond futures opened higher due to loose morning liquidity but weakened at noon as the market expected trade - conflict mitigation. Throughout the day, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds. As of April 11th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.656, 106.410, 108.985, and 119.660 yuan respectively, up 0.112, 0.295, 0.410, and 0.980 yuan from the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Long - term bullish on the bond market, with both long and short opportunities coexisting next week. As the US has exempted some products from tariffs and economic indicators in March are expected to be good, the market may face downward pressure in the first half of the week. It's advisable to lay out short - term short positions at high prices at the beginning of the week. As the necessity of a reserve - requirement ratio cut increases, short - term long positions can be laid out at low prices after the market weakens. Strategies include: holding long positions for allocation - type investors; paying attention to the strategy of steepening the curve when it flattens; and considering the cash - and - carry strategy for short - term TS and TF main contracts with relatively high IRR, and the strategy of increasing the TS basis if liquidity eases gradually [2][17][21] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 55 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 690.101 billion yuan and a net financing of - 180.55 billion yuan, down 9.777 billion yuan and 659.777 billion yuan respectively from last week. 28 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 201.941 billion yuan and a net financing of 163.9 billion yuan, up 1.4203 billion yuan and down 0.2377 billion yuan respectively from last week. 499 negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) were issued, with a total issuance volume of 682.73 billion yuan and a net financing of 125.66 billion yuan, up 410.72 billion yuan and 125.66 billion yuan respectively from last week [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of April 11th, the yields to maturity of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.49%, 1.66%, and 1.86% respectively, down 8.50, 6.68, 6.48, and 4.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The spreads between 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y treasury bonds widened by 1.15, 0.2, and 1.73 basis points to 25.54, 16.18, and 20.72 basis points respectively. The yields to maturity of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.56%, 1.56%, and 1.70% respectively, down 3.53, 4.50, and 3.35 basis points from the previous weekend [24] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose significantly. As of April 11th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.656, 106.410, 108.985, and 119.660 yuan respectively, up 0.112, 0.295, 0.410, and 0.980 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 50,609, 72,966, 93,058, and 145,409 lots respectively, up 8,652, 20,675, 19,549, and 22,489 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 132,087, 194,613, 207,546, and 116,922 lots respectively, up 15,901, 23,643, 11,057, and down 2,582 lots from the previous weekend [33][37] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The cash - and - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running high. After the marginal easing of liquidity at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the cash - and - carry strategy has become prominent. There are stable cash - and - carry opportunities for short - term varieties because although liquidity has eased marginally, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the expectation of loose monetary policy. Once the easing policy is implemented, short - term varieties have a large room for catch - up growth. Since April, the net basis of TS has been compressing [42] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of April 11th, the inter - delivery spreads between the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.154, - 0.195, - 0.060, and - 0.100 yuan respectively, down 0.086, 0.180, 0.035, and 0.020 yuan from the previous weekend [46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 763.4 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, there was a net monetary withdrawal of 289.2 billion yuan. Next week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Tuesday. As of April 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.65%, 1.61%, and 1.62% respectively, down 4.14, 4.47, 0.80, and 7.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged - repurchase this week was 6.71 trillion yuan, 628.5 billion yuan more than last week. The overnight proportion was 86.01%, slightly lower than last week [52][56][58] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose significantly. As of April 11th, the US dollar index fell 3.06% to 99.7690 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.48%, up 47 basis points from the previous weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 282.5 basis points. Due to intensifying trade conflicts, the US dollar index weakened. With rising inflation expectations, the Fed not releasing positive signals, and some investors selling US treasury bonds, the yield of US treasury bonds rose rapidly [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices and agricultural product prices both declined this week. As of April 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy - Chemical Index were 3,501.54, 6,084.77, and 1,646.77 points respectively, down 226.04, 270.68, and 123.44 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.84, 4.84, and 7.41 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.07, 0.03, and 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [64] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - Allocation - type investors can continue to hold long positions and wait for the implementation of easing policies. There are both long and short trading opportunities next week [65]