大类资产双周报：资产配置与金融工程关税频繁扰动，防御避险成为主线-20250413

Domestic Macro Perspective - Domestic consumption and production are performing well due to policy support, but exports are under pressure from tariffs, highlighting the importance of stabilizing the real estate sector and stimulating domestic demand[4] - The manufacturing and service sector PMIs rebounded in March, indicating continued expansion driven by seasonal factors and macro policies[4] Fixed Income Market View - The market is characterized by ample liquidity and a downward trend in funding rates, leading to a bullish flattening of interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds[5] - Recommendations include increasing allocations to government bonds and high-quality credit bonds to capture capital gains while being cautious of fiscal supply pressures and potential currency fluctuations[5] Equity Market Perspective - The equity market is under pressure, with the CSI 300 index down approximately 5.02% and the Hang Seng Index down 12.29%, reflecting a significant contraction in market risk appetite[6] - Despite the downturn, defensive sectors such as consumer staples and low-valuation recovery themes are highlighted as potential opportunities[6] Overseas Market Outlook - Global trade uncertainties and recession expectations have led to a decline in government bond yields in Europe and Japan, with U.S. Treasury bonds facing selling pressure[7] - The U.S. dollar index is under pressure due to trade policy uncertainties and recession fears, suggesting a cautious approach to international asset allocation[7] Overall Market Summary - The current environment shows strong domestic macro support for consumption and production, but export challenges persist, emphasizing the need for real estate stability and domestic demand recovery[8] - The fixed income market is favorable for high-grade bonds, while the equity market presents structural opportunities in defensive sectors amid global tariff impacts[8]