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果蔬品周报:苹果天气扰动强势上涨,枣树萌芽关注天气变化-20250413
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-13 09:01

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Apple: Oscillating upward [3][4] - Red dates: Neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views - Apple market is in its traditional sales peak in April with increasing replenishment from merchants, improved market sales, and low inventory pressure. The price is expected to remain stable with an upward trend. New - season apples are entering the flowering period, and weather conditions such as strong winds and low temperatures need to be closely monitored. The futures and spot prices are expected to be optimistic in the short - term [3][12][13]. - Red dates had an unexpectedly high yield in 2024, with high inventory and low prices. The consumption off - season will last until September, and there is limited upward momentum in the short - term. However, the cost of warehouse receipts provides some support. The market focus will shift to the growth of new - season red dates, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Apple Market Analysis - Price Quotes: The futures price of the Apple 2505 contract closed at 8059 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 167 yuan/ton or 2.12%. The spot price in Shandong Qixia remained flat, while that in Shaanxi Yan'an increased [9]. - Supply and Demand: As of April 9, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 398.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38.90 million tons. The wholesale price of Fuji apples increased. The impact of citrus on apple substitution weakened, increasing apple demand. Different apple - producing areas had different sales situations, and the sales in the Guangdong wholesale market were stable after the Qingming Festival [10][11]. - Future Outlook: The apple market is expected to have smooth transactions next week, with prices remaining stable and slightly upward. Attention should be paid to factors such as merchant replenishment, market sales, farmers' selling attitudes, new - season flower volume, and weather changes [12][13]. Red Dates Market Analysis - Price Quotes: The futures price of the Red Dates 2505 contract slightly decreased, closing at 9020 yuan/ton as of April 11, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.11%. The spot price in Hebei remained flat [14]. - Supply and Demand: In 2024, Xinjiang's red dates had a high yield, but the quality was slightly poor, and the warehouse - receipt cost was around 9000 yuan. New - season red dates in some areas have started to germinate, and the growth situation needs attention. The current red - date market is in an off - season with weak demand [15][16][17]. - Future Outlook: The red - date price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the growth of new - season red dates [19].