宏观经济宏观周报：费与房地产高频指标走弱，投资景气继续上升-20250413

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A is negative, indicating weak economic performance[1] - The index B has declined, showing a downward trend in consumption and real estate sectors, while investment sentiment continues to rise[1] - Seasonal comparison shows that index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, indicating a significant drop below historical averages[1] Investment and Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential correction[1] - Predictions for the week of April 18, 2025, indicate that the ten-year government bond yield is expected to rise, while the Shanghai Composite Index is projected to decline[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of April 11, 2025, is 2.63%, compared to the actual yield of 1.65%, marking a historical deviation of 98 basis points[19] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly decreased, while non-food prices have increased; April CPI is expected to rise to zero year-on-year[2][24] - The expected April CPI food price change is approximately 0.5%, with non-food prices expected to rise by about 0.1%, leading to an overall CPI increase of around 0.2%[2][34] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to be -0.2% month-on-month for April, remaining stable at -2.5% year-on-year[2][36]