白糖周报：宏观面风险有所释放，郑糖波动下降-20250413

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Risk Released, Zhengzhou Sugar Volatility Declines - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report Date: April 13, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Domestic market: Affected by macro - tariff policies this week, the market was bearish, dragging down sugar prices. The 2505 contract tested the 6000 yuan/ton level, and the main contract switched to 2509. With the digestion of macro - negative impacts, Zhengzhou sugar recovered later in the week. Macro risks have been released. Domestically, production is nearing an end, consumption is in the off - season, but good inventory depletion keeps spot prices firm. Zhengzhou sugar may return to a wide - range oscillation with lower volatility [59]. - International market: The continuous decline in crude oil prices due to US tariffs has raised concerns about a significant increase in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. However, historical data shows limited marginal increases. Brazil has more rainfall, which may affect the start of the crushing season and support international sugar prices. Short - term raw sugar will test the 17.8 cents/pound support and is expected to turn to an oscillatory trend [59]. - Operation suggestion: Focus on short - term trading [60] Group 4: Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures: The price of Zhengzhou sugar dropped this week, with a weekly decline of 2.04% [12]. - ICE sugar futures: The price declined, with a weekly drop of 4.33% [12]. Spot Price and Basis Trends - No specific data on spot price and basis trends are detailed in the report. National Production and Sales - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in February was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18]. Sugar Imports - From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 5188 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 6615 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost is 5268 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 6719 yuan/ton [28]. Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory in February was 4.9645 million tons, an increase of 795,100 tons compared to the same period last year [31]. ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,776, an increase of 1366 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecasts were 1366 [39]. Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 617 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%, and the sugar production was 39.983 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34% [43]. Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative bi - weekly sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.09%, compared to 48.96% in the same period last year [45]. Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In March, Brazil's sugar exports were 1.8512 million tons, a decrease of 868,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 35.1296 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 tons [48]. International Main Producing Region Weather - In Brazil's main producing areas, rainfall increased, alleviating the relatively dry situation compared to the same period [55]. - In India, precipitation increased slightly [56]