库存低位对锌价形成有力支撑

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral, and for arbitrage, it is inter - period positive spread [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the TC has maintained an upward trend so far, but the future upward space and amplitude are limited. Currently, due to the relationship between TC and price, smelting enthusiasm is high, and supply will continue to increase, which will limit the upside of zinc prices. Consumption is relatively strong, the export market has not been affected by tariffs, and the year - on - year export growth rate is relatively fast. After the absolute price decline, the downstream's enthusiasm for point - price procurement is high, social inventory has significantly declined, and the spot premium has risen rapidly. Low inventory provides favorable support for zinc prices, and zinc prices will maintain a range - bound trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of April 10, 2025, the LME zinc price decreased by - 3.69% to $2647/ton compared with last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract decreased by - 1.94% to 22,705 yuan/ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from - $11.53/ton last week to - $15.80/ton [3] - As of the week of April 11, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in SMM remained stable at 3400 yuan/metal ton compared with last week, and the weekly processing fee for imported zinc concentrates remained stable at $35/ton. Some local areas saw a slight increase, while the rest remained stable. Due to the decline in zinc prices, the future upward space for TC is limited. The domestic smelter output in March was 547,000 tons, 1000 tons more than expected, and the expected output in April is 568,000 tons [3] - In terms of consumption, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises increased by 0.55% to 60.3% compared with last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by - 3.37% to 54.1%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.57% to 60.65% [3] - As of April 10, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven locations was 102,100 tons, a decrease of - 7000 tons compared with the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 6568 tons to 6980 tons compared with the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 11,550 tons to 121,800 tons compared with last week. The decline in the absolute price last week stimulated downstream point - price procurement, and social inventory significantly declined [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5]