食品饮料行业周观点：强内需预期升温，基本面展现韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong expectation for domestic demand, suggesting that the food and beverage sector is showing resilience in its fundamentals [1]. - The white liquor segment is expected to benefit from improved performance and valuation recovery, drawing parallels to the 2018 US-China trade tensions, where the sector demonstrated strong defensive characteristics [2]. - The beer segment, particularly Yanjing Beer, is projected to continue its high growth momentum, with significant increases in revenue and profit expected in 2024 and 2025 [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections White Liquor - The white liquor sector is anticipated to achieve both performance and valuation recovery due to strong domestic demand and improved supply dynamics. The report cites that leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu are showing stable growth with significant revenue and profit increases projected for 2024 [2]. - Kweichow Moutai's total revenue and net profit for 2024 are expected to grow by 15.7% and 15.4% year-on-year, respectively, with a dividend payout ratio of 75% and a dividend yield of 3.4% [2]. Beer and Beverages - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a net profit increase of 63.74% [3]. - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of Yanjing U8, which achieved a sales volume of 696,000 kiloliters in 2024, marking a 31.4% increase year-on-year [3]. - The beverage sector is expected to maintain high growth rates, particularly with the upcoming IPO of IFBH, which has a leading market share in coconut water [7]. Consumer Goods - The report identifies several consumer goods companies, such as Three Squirrels and H&H International, that are expected to benefit from strong recovery and growth trajectories. H&H International reported a revenue increase of 10.4% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with significant growth in its infant formula segment [7]. - The report also notes the strategic acquisitions and expansions by companies like Three Squirrels, which are aimed at enhancing their market presence and adapting to changing consumer preferences [7].