关税反制与自主可控股票池：无惧关税博弈：中国潜在应对手段与投资机会

Core Insights - The report highlights that China's economic resilience has improved compared to the previous trade friction, suggesting that internal stability may be the best countermeasure against external pressures [1] - It anticipates that policies aimed at stabilizing growth will likely be intensified, with a focus on expanding consumption and monetary easing [1][3] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: self-sufficiency and industrial trends (semiconductors, AI, rare earths, military industry), boosting domestic demand and growth transformation (new consumption, service consumption, fertility), and defensive attributes with stable dividends [1] Group 1: Expanding Domestic Consumption - The report emphasizes that expanding domestic consumption is a priority, especially in light of increased tariffs from the U.S. which may significantly impact exports [2][21] - It suggests that existing policies supporting new consumption may see increased intensity, including broader subsidy ratios and product support ranges [2] - The service consumption sector, which constitutes a significant portion of overall consumer spending, could benefit from subsidies if extended beyond goods to services, positively impacting sectors like tourism and hospitality [26] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Structural Tools - There is an expectation of rising monetary easing, with potential for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic growth [3][38] - The report notes that structural policy tools related to consumption and exports are likely to be introduced, which could further stimulate economic activity [3] - Historical data indicates that monetary easing typically benefits small-cap growth stocks, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus towards these sectors [39] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Real Estate - The report anticipates a faster pace of fiscal spending, with potential expansions in areas such as consumption, employment, and foreign trade [4] - It predicts a new round of real estate policy measures may open up in the second quarter, aimed at sustaining the recovery momentum in the housing market [5] - The report highlights that the necessity to expand domestic demand is greater this year than in previous years, indicating a strategic focus on real estate as a key area for policy intervention [5][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that align with self-sufficiency and industrial trends, particularly in technology and strategic resources such as semiconductors and military industries [6] - It also recommends investing in consumer sectors that can benefit from domestic demand boosts, including electronics, retail, and services related to tourism and hospitality [6] - Additionally, it highlights the importance of defensive assets with stable dividends, such as utilities and consumer staples, which may provide resilience in uncertain market conditions [6]