EBSCN·2025-04-13 11:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector, specifically for the "Big Three" oil companies [7] Core Insights - The ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict highlights the importance of energy security, with China's reliance on oil imports projected at 72% and natural gas at 43% for 2024 [1][13] - Oil price volatility is exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropping by 13.3% and 13.6% respectively since the beginning of April 2025 [2][18] - The "Big Three" oil companies are expected to show resilience in earnings despite oil price fluctuations, with projected production increases of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% for China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC respectively in 2025 [3][31] - High dividend payouts and share buybacks are expected to enhance the long-term investment value of the "Big Three" oil companies, with dividend payout ratios of 52%, 69%, and 45% for China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC respectively in 2024 [4][48] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the strategic value of state-owned enterprises in ensuring energy security amid rising import dependence and geopolitical tensions [1][17] Section 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Oil prices are under pressure due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production decisions, with the marginal cost for new shale oil wells estimated at $65 per barrel [2][26] Section 3: Company Performance - The "Big Three" oil companies are projected to maintain profitability with net profit increases of 2.0% for China National Petroleum, 11% for CNOOC, and a 24% increase in upstream EBIT for Sinopec [3][31] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their subsidiaries, as well as leading companies in refining and coal chemical sectors, given the favorable long-term outlook [5]