国泰君安期货能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20250413

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that petroleum asphalt (BU) will mainly fluctuate following crude oil. In the past week, BU dropped significantly with oil prices, and the crack spread rebounded rapidly. The demand in various regions increased week - on - week, especially in East China and Shandong. The domestic asphalt plant - level inventory decreased overall, while the social inventory continued to accumulate. In the context of weak crude oil, the BU crack spread may maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the southern market quotes [4]. Summary by Directory Market Review - BU followed the sharp decline in oil prices and the crack spread rebounded quickly. The demand in various regions increased week - on - week, with East China and Shandong being the most prominent, but a significant portion of the demand in East China was due to social inventory transfer. The domestic asphalt device maintenance volume was 836,000 tons this week, a decrease of 9,000 tons (1.1%) from last week. As of April 10, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample plants was 938,000 tons, a decrease of 1.1% from April 7. The social inventory continued to accumulate, with the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses reaching 1.905 million tons, an increase of 0.7% from April 7 [4]. Price & Spread - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including futures - disk prices and trading volume positions, spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma瑞 crude oil, and spread - basis and monthly spread data [7][8][10][11][15]. Fundamental Data Demand - Downstream Shipment - The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 320,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24.5%. The decrease was most obvious in East China and Shandong. The terminal demand in East China was mainly for rigid needs, with most transactions from social inventory, increasing the pressure on plant - level inventory and reducing the shipment volume. In Shandong, affected by the significant decline in refinery prices, buyers were cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid needs, which significantly dragged down the refinery shipment volume. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 5.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, meeting the expected increase from last week [21]. Supply - Production: According to Longzhong's tracking of 92 enterprises, the domestic weekly total asphalt production was 476,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons (0.4%) and a year - on - year decrease of 29,000 tons (5.7%). The cumulative production from January to April was 9.848 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 197,000 tons (2.0%) [25]. - Start - up: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions, including the overall start - up rate and those in Northeast, Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China - Central China, and South China - Southwest regions [29][31][32][35][36]. - Inventory: The report provides the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions, including North China - Shandong, South China, Yangtze River Delta, and the overall inventory rate [39][40][42][43][44].