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美国关税政策反复无常,黄金大涨创新高
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-04-13 12:19

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold soared 6.6% to $3,237 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.49%, inflation expectations dropped to 2.23%, real interest rates rose to 2.26%, the US dollar index tumbled 2.84% to 100, the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, the RMB rose slightly, and the Shanghai gold shifted from a premium to a discount [2] - The sharp rise in gold was driven by the inflow of funds due to the triple slump in the US stock, bond, and exchange markets. The erratic US tariff policy and the escalating retaliatory tariffs between the US and China increased market risk aversion, which was fundamentally beneficial to gold. The extreme tariff policy also led to capital outflows from the US, weakening the US dollar and benefiting gold [2] - US economic data showed a decline in inflation pressure in March, but food prices continued to rise, and future tariffs would cause further price increases. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April decreased, while the one-year inflation expectation climbed [2] - There is a risk of overheating in the short-term market sentiment. The positions and trading volume of Shanghai gold have increased significantly, and there was profit-taking by long positions overseas last week. The short-term postponement of additional tariffs and exemptions for certain commodities by the US reduced the possibility of conflict escalation, and the Fed's potential market intervention also eased the selling pressure [3] - After the strong rise of gold, long positions have become crowded in the short term. Tariff developments will increase market volatility, and attention should be paid to the risk of a correction [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) was 0.45 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 0.52 yuan and a change rate of -742.9%. The internal - external futures price difference was -9.19 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of -11.28 yuan and a change rate of -539.0% [11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3 kilograms to 15,678 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 495,732 ounces to 44,575,964 ounces [11] - The SPDR ETF holding volume rose by 20.35 tons to 953.15 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 38,088 hands to 138,465 hands [11] - The US Treasury yield increased by 0.47 percentage points to 4.48%, and the US dollar index decreased by 3.15 points to 99.77 [11] - The SOFR was 4.37%, with a weekly decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The US 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped by 0.0431 percentage points to 2.2336% [11] - The S&P 500 index increased by 289 points to 5,363, and the VIX volatility index decreased by 7.8 points to 37.6 [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 7.2, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 0.58 percentage points to 2.26% [11] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.37%. Oil prices dropped 3.1%, and US inflation expectations fell to 2.23% [17] - The US dollar index tumbled 2.8% to 100, and the US Treasury yield was 4.49%. The S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, and the VIX index dropped to 37.56 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets declined, while the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%. Developing country stock markets also fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.11% [22] - Real interest rates rose to 2.25%, and gold prices soared 6.6%. The spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index tumbled [23] - The euro rose 3.53%, the British pound rose 1.53%, the Japanese yen rose 2.31%, and the Swiss franc rose 5.34% [26] - US and German bond yields increased, and the US - German yield spread widened to 1.92%. The British government bond yield was 4.75%, and the Japanese government bond yield was 1.32% [27] - The US dollar index dropped 2.84% to 100, and most non - US currencies appreciated [28] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative net long positions decreased to 138,000 hands, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume increased to 953 tons [31] - The RMB depreciated slightly, and the internal - external price difference fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver prices soared, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 100 [35] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's March foreign trade and financial data; US March New York Fed inflation expectations [36] - Tuesday: Germany and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index; US April New York Fed manufacturing index and March import price index [36] - Wednesday: China's Q1 GDP, March retail sales, and industrial added - value data; US March retail sales and April NAHB housing index [36] - Thursday: ECB interest rate meeting; US March new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims [36] - Friday: Japan's March CPI; US stock market closed for Good Friday [36]