SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-13 12:23Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The real estate sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has experienced declines, with A-share real estate down by 1.5% and Hong Kong real estate down by 4.6% during the week of April 5-11 [2] - The average premium rate for land transactions remains high at 11%, despite a significant week-on-week decline in land transaction volume by 51% [2][29] - New housing transactions have decreased due to holiday effects and the pace of new launches, with a week-on-week decline of 35% across 47 cities [3][34] - The second-hand housing market shows resilience with a week-on-week increase of 9% in transactions across 22 cities [3][42] - The necessity for real estate stimulus has increased due to tariff impacts, with the potential for policy measures to be introduced in late April [4][13] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector ranked 6th among all sectors with a decline of 1.5%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 5th with a decline of 4.6% [2][18] - The property service index in Hong Kong fell by 2.5%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 300 Index by 4.9% and 0.4%, respectively [23] Land Transactions - In the week of April 5-11, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 276 million square meters, reflecting a 51% decrease week-on-week and a 43% decrease year-on-year [2][29] - Cumulatively, from the beginning of 2025, the total area of residential land sold reached 9,554 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [29] New Housing Transactions - New housing sales across 47 cities totaled 283 million square meters, with a week-on-week decline of 35% and a year-on-year decline of 6% [3][34] - First-tier cities saw a week-on-week decline of 39% in new housing transactions [34] Second-hand Housing Transactions - Second-hand housing transactions across 22 cities totaled 272 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 23% [42] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year increase of 30% in second-hand housing transactions [42] Policy and Stimulus - The report highlights the need for stimulus measures in the real estate sector due to increased tariffs, with potential policy implementations expected following the political bureau meeting at the end of April [4][13] - Various cities are conducting research and preparing policies to stabilize the real estate market [14] Market Dynamics - The average absorption rate for new projects in March reached 45%, with significant increases in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [5][15] - Strong product quality is identified as a key factor driving market interest, particularly in core urban areas [5][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product offerings and land acquisition capabilities, particularly in first-tier and core second-tier cities [6] - Recommended companies include Binjiang Group, China Overseas Development, and Jianfa International Group, along with their respective property management firms [6]