财信证券宏观策略周报（4.14-4.18）：市场情绪逐步趋稳，关注苹果产业链估值修复-20250413

Market Overview - The market sentiment is gradually stabilizing, with a focus on the valuation recovery of the Apple supply chain [5][19] - In the week of April 7-11, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11% to 3,238.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 5.13% to 9,834.44 points [8][9] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 41% compared to the previous week, reaching 15,742.36 billion yuan [5][8] Economic and Trade Relations - The report indicates that the peak impact of the current U.S.-China tariff war on market sentiment may have passed, with China's tariff on U.S. imports raised from 84% to 125% [5][16] - The U.S. tariffs have become a "numbers game" with no practical economic significance, and further U.S. tariff increases are unlikely to significantly impact China's economy and capital markets [5][16] - The report emphasizes that the tariff war has no winners and will harm global trade, industry chains, and economic well-being, including that of the U.S. [5][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach in the short term, focusing on controlling positions while waiting for market stabilization [5][26] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. The Apple supply chain and consumer electronics, as recent announcements exempt certain electronic products from tariffs, presenting valuation recovery opportunities [5][26] 2. High-dividend sectors such as banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [5][26] 3. Domestic demand expansion sectors, including agriculture, home appliances, liquor, and beauty care [5][27] 4. Precious metals, particularly gold, due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties [5][27] 5. Technology and self-sufficiency sectors, with a focus on domestic computing power, Huawei's Harmony ecosystem, and defense industries [5][28] Sector Performance - The report highlights that sectors such as agriculture, retail, and defense performed well, while export-oriented industries and TMT sectors lagged [5][19] - The report notes that the A-share market's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.51 times, indicating strong long-term investment value [19]