2025年4月13日利率债观察：信贷和社融双双向好

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The growth of credit and social financing is positive, and a series of economic and financial indicators have rebounded since last autumn, indicating that the package of incremental policies introduced since September last year have effectively boosted social confidence and the economy has significantly recovered, demonstrating the effectiveness of China's macro - control policies [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit and Social Financing Growth - Single - month Increment: In March 2025, new RMB loans and social financing were 6.85 trillion and 5.89 trillion yuan respectively, significantly higher than the market - expected median values of 3.0 trillion and 4.8 trillion yuan, and increased by 3.76 trillion and 1.02 trillion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year [1]. - Cumulative Increment: In the first three months of this year, RMB loans and social financing increased by 3.53 trillion and 2.25 trillion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative increment of social financing reached a record high [1]. - Balance (Stock) Cumulative Growth Rate: At the end of March 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of RMB loan balances and social financing stocks increased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared with the end of February, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stocks reached the highest level since June 2024 [1]. - Growth Momentum: The increase in the bill market interest rate in late March 2025 reflected the tendency of some financial institutions to actively compress the scale of credit supply, indicating strong credit growth momentum in March. The significant decline in the bill market interest rate in April means that the increase in late March was mainly the result of credit regulation [1]. Rebound of Economic and Financial Indicators - M1 Year - on - Year Growth Rate: It was - 3.3% in September last year and rebounded to 1.6% in March this year [2]. - Manufacturing PMI: It was 49.1% in August last year and rebounded to 50.5% in March this year [2]. - Cumulative Year - on - Year Growth Rate of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods: It was 3.3% in September last year and rebounded to 4.0% in February this year [2].