行业周报：对等关税利空落地，内需刺激值得期待-20250413

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" is limited, and there is an expectation for domestic demand stimulation. The tariffs primarily affect fiberglass and its products, with 202,000 tons of fiberglass exported in 2024, accounting for 26.7% of total production. A complete halt in exports to the U.S. could reduce domestic GDP by 1.5 percentage points, necessitating increased investment and consumption to achieve a 5% GDP growth target. The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from ongoing macroeconomic policies and fiscal stimulus [3][5][12] - Recommended stocks in the consumer construction materials sector include: Sankeshu (channel expansion, retail growth), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader, optimized operations), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations, significant retail business), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include: Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader, diversified expansion in coatings and waterproofing) [3][5] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, with a target to reduce energy consumption per unit of cement clinker by 3.7% compared to 2020 levels, accelerating energy-saving and carbon reduction efforts [3][5] Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 2.42% during the week of April 7 to April 11, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.87%, by 0.46 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.48%, while the construction materials index increased by 4.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.32 percentage points. However, over the past year, the construction materials index rose by only 1.64%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 7.90% [3][12][19] Cement Sector - As of April 11, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 341.69 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.82% from the previous period. The clinker inventory ratio was 57.52%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points [5][24][26] - Regional price trends show mixed results: Northeast (+0.90%), North China (-5.46%), East China (-0.89%), South China (-1.30%), Central China (-9.81%), Southwest (+4.40%), and Northwest (0.00%) [24][26] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass as of April 11, 2025, was 1324.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.00 CNY/ton (0.76% rise). The futures price decreased by 5.10% to 1154 CNY/ton [5][77][79] - National float glass inventory decreased by 83 million weight boxes, a decline of 1.45%, with key provinces also showing reduced inventory levels [80][84] Fiberglass Sector - The market for fiberglass shows varied pricing, with no-alkali 2400tex direct yarn priced between 3800-4500 CNY/ton, and other fiberglass products showing flexible pricing based on regional demand [5][14] Consumer Construction Materials - As of April 11, 2025, the price of crude oil was 66.16 USD/barrel, down 1.08% week-on-week, and asphalt was priced at 4390 CNY/ton, down 1.13% week-on-week. Prices for acrylic acid and titanium dioxide showed slight increases [5][19]