宏观与大类资产周报：关税冲击后关注结构性机会-20250413

Domestic Analysis - In the second week of April, domestic production rates showed a general decline, indicating adjustments due to tariff impacts, with demand indicators remaining weak and price pressures increasing[1] - The Trump administration's tariff policy remains uncertain, with many non-U.S. countries receiving a 90-day tariff exemption, potentially accelerating exports[1] - Recent high-frequency data suggests a cooling in automotive demand while daily consumer goods continue to see increased exports[1] Overseas Analysis - The 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs aligns with Trump's negotiation strategy, indicating a need for more time to reach solutions[2] - On April 10, the U.S. markets experienced a significant downturn, raising concerns about a liquidity crisis; however, past experiences suggest that the Federal Reserve responds quickly to such crises, often leading to a V-shaped recovery in the stock market[2] - Short-term, the yuan faces depreciation pressure due to tariffs, but the central bank's stabilization measures suggest limited downward movement, with the yuan expected to fluctuate between 7.15 and 7.35[2] Asset Performance - Domestic equity markets are currently experiencing a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, with technology and export-related sectors showing relative strength[1] - The bond market is expected to face renewed pressure once economic downturns are alleviated, while the stock market remains supported by domestic policies[1] - Recent data indicates a decline in A-share indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.13% for the week[41]