纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总-20250414

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report For the Soda Ash Market - Supply has returned to a high level, putting pressure on inventory. Although the rigid demand has improved recently, the trend of oversupply remains difficult to change. After the end - users replenish inventory from the middle - stream, the upstream faces pressure in order - taking. The price has dropped to a low - valuation range, and further downward space requires negative feedback from the real - world end. Attention should be paid to the new order transaction price and the operation of the supply side. A short - selling strategy can be based on the realization of low valuation or continued high production and unstable spot prices [8][9]. For the Glass Market - The low - supply level is maintained. Pay attention to the subsequent changes in production lines. The low - price spot and futures supplies and the expansion of delivery warehouses suppress the sentiment of near - month contracts. Wait for the digestion of the weak demand narrative atmosphere and the restoration of the confidence of upstream manufacturers. A long - buying strategy for far - month contracts at low prices is recommended [166][168]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Market 3.1 Market Overview - Supply: The total weekly output is 73.77 million tons, with heavy - quality output at 40.39 million tons and light - quality output at 33.38 million tons. The import is 0.12 million tons, and the export is 4.2 million tons. The supply level has returned to a high level, and some manufacturers have maintenance plans in April and May, but the involved production capacity is relatively small. - Demand: The rigid demand has improved recently. The daily melting volume of float glass remains stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased. The consumption of heavy - quality soda ash is 34.30 million tons, and the apparent demand for light - quality soda ash is 29.74 million tons. - Inventory: The alkali plant inventory is 169.30 million tons, and the social inventory is 40.27 million tons. The inventory is under pressure due to the high - level supply [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: The monthly production shows seasonal fluctuations. - Import and Export: The current import is 0.55 million tons, and the export is 15.14 million tons. The import dependence is 0.00%. Compared with the previous month and the same period last year, there are significant changes in import and export volume and price [15][16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Futures - Spot Price Comparison: The futures price index and the spot price of soda ash in different regions show certain trends over the years. - Contract Basis: The basis of different soda ash contracts (01, 05, 09) shows different fluctuations. - Inter - Contract Spread: The spreads between different soda ash contracts (09 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) also show different trends. - Glass - Soda Ash Spread: The spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices show different trends [24][29][37]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - Regional Prices: The prices of heavy - quality and light - quality soda ash in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China show different trends and price levels. - Price Differences: The price differences between heavy - quality and light - quality soda ash in different regions also show different trends [45][49][69]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - Shutdown and Startup: Some manufacturers are currently under maintenance or reducing production, and some have planned maintenance in the future. - Operating Rate: The current domestic operating rate of soda ash is 88.05%, showing an upward trend compared with the previous week and the same period last year. - Production of Heavy - and Light - Quality Soda Ash: The weekly production of heavy - quality and light - quality soda ash shows an upward trend. - Cost and Profit: The costs of ammonia - soda method and combined - soda method remain stable, and the profits also show certain trends [85][86][96]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - Demand for Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: The demand for heavy - quality soda ash is mainly affected by the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass, showing an upward trend. - Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of soda ash show certain trends [131][137]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - Overall Inventory: The current inventory of soda ash enterprises is 169.3 million tons, showing an upward trend compared with the same period last year. - Regional Inventory: The inventory in different regions such as North China, Central China, and East China shows different trends [146][154]. Glass Market 3.1 Market Overview - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 158,475 t/d, and the weekly output is 1.1093 million tons, remaining stable. - Demand: The apparent consumption is 1.1370 million tons, showing a slight decline. The terminal demand is expected to recover seasonally. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 3.2602 million tons, showing a downward trend, but the decline rate has narrowed, and there are regional differences. - Cost and Profit: The costs of natural gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke production lines remain stable, and the profits show certain trends [166]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: The monthly production of flat glass shows seasonal fluctuations. - Import and Export: The import and export volume of float glass shows certain trends [173][174]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Futures - Spot Price Comparison: The futures price index and the spot price of glass in different regions show certain trends over the years. - Contract Basis: The basis of different glass contracts (01, 05, 09) shows different fluctuations. - Inter - Contract Spread: The spreads between different glass contracts (09 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) also show different trends. - Glass - Soda Ash Spread: The spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices show different trends [182][187][197]. 3.4 Glass Market Price - Regional Prices: The prices of float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China show different trends and price levels. - Different Specifications: The prices of 5mm large - and small - plate float glass in different regions also show different trends [206][208]. 3.5 Glass Supply No relevant detailed content provided.