LPG：原油回暖，交割月关注基差变化

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the LPG market, tracking its fundamentals, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, price spreads, and key industry data such as PDH, MTBE, and alkylation开工率. It also provides market information on Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: PG2505 closed at 4,394 yesterday with a -2.16% daily increase and 4,367 in the night session with a -0.61% increase; PG2506 closed at 4,304 yesterday with a -1.94% daily increase and 4,292 in the night session with a -0.28% increase [1]. - Trading Volumes and Open Interests: PG2505 had a trading volume of 64,123 yesterday, a decrease of 25,906 from the previous day, and an open interest of 44,363, a decrease of 2,851; PG2506 had a trading volume of 36,874 yesterday, a decrease of 10,509, and an open interest of 45,435, an increase of 1,801 [1]. - Price Spreads: The price spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to the 05 contract was 956 yesterday, compared to 859 the previous day; the price spread of Guangzhou imported gas to the 06 contract was 1,006, compared to 909 the previous day [1]. - Key Industry Data: This week, the PDH开工率 was 65.8%, down from 69.2% last week; the MTBE开工率 was 65.5%, up from 64.2%; the alkylation开工率 was 43.4%, up from 42.2% [1]. 3.2 Market Trends - Propane Premiums and Discounts: The FEI propane premium/discount has been continuously declining, while the US Gulf propane premium has slightly widened. The Middle East propane premium/discount has remained stable, and freight rates have slightly rebounded [2][5]. - Trend Intensity: The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3.3 Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On April 10, 2025, the expected price for May Saudi CP propane was 568 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 548 USD/ton, down 4 USD/ton. For June, the expected propane price was 550 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton, and butane was 530 USD/ton, unchanged [8]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple enterprises have PDH device maintenance plans with various capacities and start times, and most end times are yet to be determined [9]. - Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many refineries have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times [11].