电子行业：美国关税政策影响终端出货增长，中国AI投资规模有望持续加码

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [36] Core Insights - The global terminal market shipment growth is expected to slow down due to the new round of US tariff policies, with AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks projected to have year-on-year growth rates of 24.5%, 5.4%, 0%, and 3% respectively under the base case scenario for 2025 [3][6] - China's total investment in artificial intelligence is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2028, with generative AI investment growing from 18.9% of total AI investment in 2024 to 30.6% in 2028, amounting to over $30 billion [10][11] - The global semiconductor equipment market revenue is projected to reach $117.14 billion in 2024, a 10% increase from 2023, with China being the largest market [15][17] - The global personal computer shipment volume increased by 9.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, totaling 62.7 million units, driven by OEMs accelerating shipments before the tariff implementation [19][20] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - The semiconductor industry index rose by 0.56% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.43 percentage points; since the beginning of 2024, the semiconductor industry index has increased by 29.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 20.22 percentage points [26][24] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is currently in a recovery phase, with a rebound in consumer electronics. The report suggests focusing on domestic substitution and AI industry chain opportunities, recommending companies such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and Dinglong Co., while also paying attention to AI + semiconductor investment opportunities [31][31]