中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报：多空分歧较大，关注PDH装置开工率-20250414

Report Title - Zhongtai Futures Polypropylene Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated April 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The market has significant long - short divergence, and attention should be paid to the operating rate of PDH plants [1] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's domestic polypropylene production was 75.70 million tons, a slight increase from last week's 73.16 million tons. Next week, some plants are expected to resume production, and production is forecasted to reach 76.60 million tons, continuing to increase [6]. - This week's maintenance loss was 12.47 million tons, a decrease of 2.17 million tons from last week. Next week, there will be no maintenance loss [6]. - Weekly average imports and exports remained stable at 7.50 million tons for imports and 3.75 million tons for exports [6]. Demand - This week's apparent demand was 77.94 million tons, a marginal increase from last week's 77.93 million tons. Next week, seasonal demand is expected to be around 82 million tons [6]. Inventory - This week's total inventory was 86.35 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons from last week. The de - stocking speed was not ideal [6]. - Upstream inventory increased by 2.07 million tons to 63.71 million tons, mainly due to a significant increase in upstream inventory. Mid - stream inventory decreased by 0.56 million tons to 22.64 million tons [6]. Operating Rate - The overall upstream operating rate slightly increased, and with the resumption of many maintenance plants next week, the operating rate is expected to rise slightly [6]. 3. Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis generally showed a volatile and strengthening trend. If the upstream plant operating rate continues to decline, the basis may weaken [10]. Inter - month Spread - The 1 - 5 month spread was - 147 this week, a decrease of 107 from last week. The 5 - 9 month spread was 76 this week, an increase of 45 from last week. The spreads were volatile with no strong short - term drivers [10]. Variety Spread - The fiber -拉丝 spread decreased by 50 to 170 this week, and the copolymer -拉丝 spread decreased by 150 to 160. The pellet - powder spread in North China increased by 40 to 90, and in East China increased by 10 to 60 [10]. Disk Spread - The LL - PP spread weakened slightly this week and is expected to enter a weak and volatile state later [10]. 4. Summary and Outlook Upstream - Attention should be paid to the operating rate of PDH plants. After the propane tax increase, the profits of these plants have deteriorated rapidly, and there may be shutdowns [12]. Mid - stream - The mid - stream shipment situation is average, and spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand [12]. Downstream - The demand for plastic products exported to the US from downstream enterprises is expected to weaken significantly [12]. Strategies - Consider a small reduction in the long PP and short MA spread strategy, and continue to operate after a rebound. There is significant long - short divergence, so it is recommended to wait and see. Sell call options [12]